Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1029.715751 1184.265741 1362.524445 1585.295477 1859.015435 2188.032761 2.619115e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 770.157795 959.250819 1202.679413 1546.965139 2035.004113 2724.730025 3.818265e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 663.073858 865.775503 1144.693586 1571.486389 2237.479901 3294.386091 5.237106e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 592.895652 803.577995 1109.429408 1609.124258 2456.554270 3951.155678 7.124211e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 530.647117 740.123552 1057.176154 1603.062600 2594.893052 4511.560421 9.158962e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 473.753546 675.558575 991.107119 1557.619489 2646.815859 4922.056041 1.114176e+04
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 439.091691 640.154997 965.057183 1574.065313 2817.130836 5645.180755 1.453272e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 398.646935 590.511103 908.024596 1522.402593 2834.304508 6024.495417 1.727436e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 366.628812 551.112766 863.245674 1485.572186 2873.321640 6477.771776 2.081155e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 338.570402 515.499481 820.728609 1445.730157 2895.306461 6898.849872 2.481714e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 329.384489 510.954444 833.248988 1519.906534 3210.607203 8354.472112 3.646947e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 317.742040 500.841473 833.962798 1568.893633 3478.711160 9842.369496 5.256297e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 303.973598 487.689659 831.246679 1619.799316 3801.643420 11921.784808 8.391595e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 281.853056 457.804411 793.246356 1585.189681 3879.055211 13166.137663 1.175515e+05
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 268.163489 442.000956 781.156890 1609.778388 4150.403569 15623.323465 1.984620e+05
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 257.104328 430.008500 775.256700 1648.755900 4491.246254 18965.580810 3.828048e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 243.477548 411.737158 753.688458 1642.478611 4673.908735 21725.464468 6.984300e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 228.141157 388.814207 719.449696 1595.558439 4687.796766 23441.711948 1.147692e+06
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 218.858348 377.160817 708.809521 1612.537732 4967.836238 27821.410892 3.094824e+06
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 205.622742 356.507130 675.736567 1559.204359 4934.153679 29540.840609 6.179757e+06
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 194.527623 339.451295 649.299626 1521.194285 4956.905987 31996.558827 1.710553e+07
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 184.150749 323.179883 623.201301 1480.087018 4952.814434 34307.506886 6.660709e+07
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 181.590018 322.929444 634.623377 1556.628043 5554.862096 46089.326497 NaN